The idea of betting on an electric car startup seemed absurd to most people back in 2010. But that June, Tesla Motors went public anyway.
Tesla listed on NASDAQ at $17 per share—priced above the $14-$16 range analysts expected. The company offered 13.3 million shares, raising $226 million. First American automobile manufacturer IPO since Ford in 1956, some 54 years earlier.
Jim Cramer told CNBC viewers to "buy, buy, buy" the IPO. Days later? He reversed course completely. Barron's published a piece titled "Tesla: A Carmaker That's Actually More Overvalued Than Its Cars." Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating. Wall Street's reception was decidedly cool.
The stock surged that first day anyway—closing at $23.89, up 41% from the IPO price. Within weeks, it had hit $25 before pulling back below $18 to start regular trading. Volatility became Tesla's signature.
Tesla discontinued the Roadster in January 2012 after four years. The company had bigger plans: Model S was coming. The prototype had been unveiled in 2009, and now production was the focus.
Model S launched. Starting price: $57,400. Top speed of 130 mph, range up to 300 miles per charge, 0-60 in 4.4 seconds for the Performance model. The stock rallied about 10% in the weeks after release.
September 2012 brought the Supercharger network announcement—fast-charging stations throughout California, Nevada, Arizona. These stations would multiply to over 20,000 worldwide in the years ahead, but at the time it was just an experiment.
Tesla posted its first quarterly profit ever. Record sales of $562 million for Q1, up 83% from the previous quarter. Gross margin of 17%—double the prior quarter. The stock jumped 13% on the news.
That same year, Tesla issued $600 million in convertible bonds. The company needed cash. By this point, Wall Street had started classifying Tesla as a speculative-grade technology company rather than a traditional automaker. The convertible bonds carried a low 1.25% coupon—investors were betting on stock appreciation rather than interest income.
Announcement of the Gigafactory near Sparks, Nevada. Planned capacity: enough lithium-ion battery packs for 500,000 cars annually. Tesla issued $2 billion more in convertible bonds that year.
The stock had its ups and downs. A 30% drop one month, rallies the next. By 2016, DeepMind's AlphaGo was beating the world Go champion (different story, but the AI hype was building), and Tesla was positioning itself at the intersection of AI and automotive.
2016 brought the Model 3 announcement—Tesla's attempt at mass-market appeal.
Tesla Motors became Tesla Inc. The name change reflected broader ambitions beyond just cars—energy storage, solar, the whole sustainable energy ecosystem.
Semi Truck concept unveiled. Elon Musk claimed 500-mile range, ability to maintain 65 mph going up a 5% grade. Planned release date: 2020 (it would take longer).
Disaster struck. A Tesla driver on autopilot was killed after crashing into a roadside barrier in California. The stock fell 8%. The company issued a statement noting that vehicle logs showed the driver had ignored multiple visual and audible warnings. Bad press, but the stock recovered.
Tesla issued another $850 million in convertible bonds in 2017, then $1.6 billion more in 2019. The company kept needing capital. Property, plant, and equipment had grown from $114 million in 2010 to over $10 billion by the end of 2019.
The stock started 2020 at $88.60 per share.
COVID hit. Brief dip. Then an historic rally began.
Model 3 sales were accelerating. Retail investors poured into the market—meme stocks, crypto, FOMO assets. Tesla became the ultimate FOMO play.
Fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Finally eligible for S&P 500 inclusion.
The stock had soared past $1,000. Tesla announced a 5-for-1 stock split. The stock jumped 74% that month alone—its best month ever. Split-adjusted IPO price dropped to about $3.40.
S&P 500 inclusion committee's quarterly rebalancing. Everyone expected Tesla to get in. It didn't. The stock tumbled more than 16% in one day. Three smaller companies were added instead: Catalent Inc., Teradyne Inc., and Etsy. Their combined market cap: $40 billion. Tesla's market cap at the time: $370 billion.
S&P Dow Jones Indices finally announced Tesla would join the S&P 500 on December 21. The stock was already around $390 billion in market cap—making it the largest company ever added to the index. Larger than Berkshire Hathaway when it was added in 2010 ($127 billion) or Facebook in 2013 ($90 billion). About 2.5 times larger, actually.
The index committee sought feedback on whether to add Tesla all at once or in two tranches because of its size. They ultimately decided: all at once before the open on December 21.
Between November 17 and December 18, the stock appreciated another 57%. Index funds needed to buy more than $80 billion worth of Tesla shares to rebalance their portfolios. Goldman Sachs estimated $8 billion in demand from active U.S. large-cap mutual funds alone.
The stock hit an all-time high of $649.88. Tesla's market cap exceeded $600 billion. Elon Musk took advantage, announcing a $5 billion stock offering that week.
Tesla officially entered the S&P 500 with a weighting of about 1.5%—among the top 10 most valuable companies in the index alongside Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet. JPMorgan analysts warned that the stock was "by virtually every conventional metric not only overvalued, but dramatically so."
By year's end, Tesla's stock had increased nearly eightfold—from around $90 to $700. Best year on record. The stock was up 677% for 2020.
Between 2010 and 2020, Tesla's 4,125% growth dwarfed the S&P 500's 167% performance during the same period. Netflix was the only other stock in that league.
Tesla joined the $1 trillion club. Share prices exceeded $1,000 (pre-split).
Then came the correction. The stock lost roughly 76% of its value, reaching a low of around $113 (split-adjusted) at the beginning of 2023. Reality check.
Second stock split. 3-for-1 this time. Combined with the 2020 split, the effective split-adjusted IPO price was now about $1.13 per share.
Recovery mode. By April 2024, the stock had climbed to around $193—up 74% from the 2023 low. The company continued pushing AI narratives around Full Self-Driving and Optimus. December 17, 2024: all-time high closing price of $479.86.
The stock closed at $429.50. The 52-week high is $488.54. Low: $214.25. Average over the last 52 weeks: $348.28.
$10,000 invested at the $17 IPO price in 2010 would have purchased 588 shares. After the splits, that's 8,820 shares. Worth approximately $2.6-3 million today, depending on when you check. A 26,000%+ return in 15 years.
Tesla is now the eighth most-valuable publicly traded company in the U.S. It produces over a million EVs annually. It operates Gigafactories across multiple continents. The Supercharger network spans the globe.
The company still trades at a nose-bleed valuation—conventional automakers trade at single-digit P/E ratios, but Tesla has always been valued more like a tech company than a car company. Whether that premium is justified depends on your view of its AI capabilities, energy storage business, and long-term competitive advantages.
Traditional automakers said it couldn't be done. Tesla is the first automaker in over five decades to successfully build itself from the ground up to mass production. That alone is remarkable.
The stock remains volatile. Always has been. Probably always will be. Elon Musk's tweets don't help. Neither do autopilot incidents, production delays, or executive departures (the Cybertruck lead just left last week after eight years).
But here's the thing: betting against Tesla has been expensive. Short sellers have lost billions over the years. The skeptics have been wrong repeatedly. Jim Cramer's reversal in 2010 looks particularly foolish in hindsight.
Whether the stock goes to $600 or back to $200, one thing is clear—Tesla fundamentally changed how Wall Street thinks about electric vehicles, sustainable energy, and the automotive industry's future. Love it or hate it, TSLA stock has been one of the defining investment stories of the 2010s and 2020s.
And it all started with a $17 bet that most people thought was crazy.